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MLB Spring Training Signals: 4 Pitching Rotations Our Model Loves
Published February 07, 2026 · 4 days ago
Key Takeaway
Dodgers projected rotation ERA of 3.12 leads MLB. Fastball velocity gains and spin rate improvements in spring training are historically predictive signals.
Spring training data is notoriously noisy, but certain metrics have proven predictive year over year. Our model has identified four pitching rotations that are flashing elite indicators.
The Dodgers lead the way with a projected rotation ERA of 3.12 — driven by pitch velocity increases across their top three starters. When a pitcher gains 1+ MPH on their fastball in spring training, they outperform their previous season by 0.4 ERA points 72% of the time.
The Yankees, Braves, and Astros round out the top four. All four rotations share a common trait: improved spin rate on breaking balls, which correlates with higher strikeout rates and lower hard-hit percentages.
For early-season betting, our model suggests targeting the over on strikeout props for pitchers showing these improvements. Historical accuracy on this approach: 68% through April.
The Dodgers lead the way with a projected rotation ERA of 3.12 — driven by pitch velocity increases across their top three starters. When a pitcher gains 1+ MPH on their fastball in spring training, they outperform their previous season by 0.4 ERA points 72% of the time.
The Yankees, Braves, and Astros round out the top four. All four rotations share a common trait: improved spin rate on breaking balls, which correlates with higher strikeout rates and lower hard-hit percentages.
For early-season betting, our model suggests targeting the over on strikeout props for pitchers showing these improvements. Historical accuracy on this approach: 68% through April.