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Hockey
The Home Ice Advantage Is Disappearing in the NHL — Except for These 3 Teams
Published February 10, 2026 · 1 day ago
Key Takeaway
While NHL home advantage is declining overall (52.3% this season), Winnipeg, Washington, and Florida maintain 70%+ home win rates driven by crowd noise correlation with opponent penalties.
Home ice advantage in the NHL has declined steadily over the past decade, from a 55.1% home win rate in 2015 to just 52.3% this season. But three teams are bucking the trend dramatically.
Winnipeg (81.5% home win rate), Washington (73.1%), and Florida (70.4%) all have home records that look like statistical outliers. Our model has identified why: all three teams play in arenas with aggressive crowd noise profiles that correlate with increased opposing team penalty rates.
The correlation between arena decibel levels and opponent penalty minutes is +0.42 — statistically significant and practically meaningful. For these three teams, we apply a +2.5% home advantage modifier to our base predictions, which has improved accuracy by 8% on their home games this season.
Winnipeg (81.5% home win rate), Washington (73.1%), and Florida (70.4%) all have home records that look like statistical outliers. Our model has identified why: all three teams play in arenas with aggressive crowd noise profiles that correlate with increased opposing team penalty rates.
The correlation between arena decibel levels and opponent penalty minutes is +0.42 — statistically significant and practically meaningful. For these three teams, we apply a +2.5% home advantage modifier to our base predictions, which has improved accuracy by 8% on their home games this season.