Matchup
Basketball
Celtics vs Thunder: The NBA Finals Preview Nobody Is Talking About
Published February 08, 2026 · 3 days ago
Key Takeaway
AI model gives Celtics vs Thunder a 23% probability as the most likely Finals matchup, with three-point defense as the decisive factor.
While the media focuses on a potential Celtics-Nuggets or Celtics-Mavericks Finals rematch, our model says the most likely Finals matchup is Boston vs Oklahoma City — and it would be an all-time great series.
The statistical profiles of these two teams are mirror images. Both rank top-3 in defensive rating. Both have MVP-caliber wings who dominate in isolation. Both have elite depth with bench units that outscore opponents by 5+ points per 100 possessions.
The model gives this matchup a 23% probability — the highest of any specific Finals pairing. And in a simulated 7-game series, Boston wins 55% of the time, making it essentially a toss-up.
The X-factor: three-point defense. Boston allows the fewest three-pointers per game in the league, while OKC generates the highest percentage of their offense from beyond the arc. Whichever team wins this battle likely wins the series.
The statistical profiles of these two teams are mirror images. Both rank top-3 in defensive rating. Both have MVP-caliber wings who dominate in isolation. Both have elite depth with bench units that outscore opponents by 5+ points per 100 possessions.
The model gives this matchup a 23% probability — the highest of any specific Finals pairing. And in a simulated 7-game series, Boston wins 55% of the time, making it essentially a toss-up.
The X-factor: three-point defense. Boston allows the fewest three-pointers per game in the league, while OKC generates the highest percentage of their offense from beyond the arc. Whichever team wins this battle likely wins the series.