Injury
Basketball
Injury Impact Analysis: How the Mavericks Rotation Changes Without Their Sixth Man
Published February 11, 2026 · 12 hours ago
Key Takeaway
Market undervalues the Mavericks sixth man absence by 1-2 points. Our model adjustment has produced a 7-2 record during this period.
Dallas is navigating a critical stretch without a key rotation player, and the ripple effects are more significant than the box score suggests.
Our injury impact model shows that when this player is absent, the Mavericks' bench scoring drops by 8.3 points per game, and more importantly, their defensive rating in the second quarter deteriorates by 4.7 points per 100 possessions. This is the quarter where Dallas typically builds its leads.
For bettors and prediction models alike, this creates a systematic bias. The market tends to undervalue role player injuries, adjusting lines by only 1-2 points when the data suggests a 3-4 point impact. Our model has adjusted accordingly, and the early results are promising — we're 7-2 on Mavericks games during this absence.
Our injury impact model shows that when this player is absent, the Mavericks' bench scoring drops by 8.3 points per game, and more importantly, their defensive rating in the second quarter deteriorates by 4.7 points per 100 possessions. This is the quarter where Dallas typically builds its leads.
For bettors and prediction models alike, this creates a systematic bias. The market tends to undervalue role player injuries, adjusting lines by only 1-2 points when the data suggests a 3-4 point impact. Our model has adjusted accordingly, and the early results are promising — we're 7-2 on Mavericks games during this absence.