Analysis
Basketball
NBA Playoff Picture: How AI Models Are Projecting the Eastern Conference Race
Published February 11, 2026 · 6 hours ago
Key Takeaway
Celtics lead championship probability at 34%, but Cavaliers systematic offensive improvement and OKC Thunder net rating make them dangerous contenders.
The Eastern Conference playoff race is tighter than it has been in a decade, and our AI models are revealing some fascinating trends that traditional analysis misses.
The Boston Celtics remain the clear favorites, with our model giving them a 34% probability of winning the championship — the highest of any team in the league. Their defensive efficiency rating, combined with Tatum's February surge (31.2 PPG on 48% shooting), creates a statistical profile that mirrors the 2016 Warriors.
But the real story is Cleveland. The Cavaliers' 5-game winning streak isn't just momentum — our model detects a systematic improvement in their half-court offense that has elevated them from good to elite. Mitchell's shot selection has improved markedly, with a 12% increase in shots at the rim and a corresponding decrease in long mid-range attempts.
Oklahoma City remains the model's dark horse. Despite being in the West, SGA's player impact estimate is the highest in the league, and the Thunder's net rating when he's on the floor (+14.2) is historically elite.
Key data point: Teams with a net rating above +8.0 at this point in the season have won the championship 67% of the time over the last 20 years. Three teams currently meet that threshold: Boston (+9.1), OKC (+8.8), and Cleveland (+8.3).
The Boston Celtics remain the clear favorites, with our model giving them a 34% probability of winning the championship — the highest of any team in the league. Their defensive efficiency rating, combined with Tatum's February surge (31.2 PPG on 48% shooting), creates a statistical profile that mirrors the 2016 Warriors.
But the real story is Cleveland. The Cavaliers' 5-game winning streak isn't just momentum — our model detects a systematic improvement in their half-court offense that has elevated them from good to elite. Mitchell's shot selection has improved markedly, with a 12% increase in shots at the rim and a corresponding decrease in long mid-range attempts.
Oklahoma City remains the model's dark horse. Despite being in the West, SGA's player impact estimate is the highest in the league, and the Thunder's net rating when he's on the floor (+14.2) is historically elite.
Key data point: Teams with a net rating above +8.0 at this point in the season have won the championship 67% of the time over the last 20 years. Three teams currently meet that threshold: Boston (+9.1), OKC (+8.8), and Cleveland (+8.3).